Tension between the United States and Venezuela continue to rise due to the expanding us counter-narco campaign in the Caribbean region. The situation is tense and has been so since the U.S began counter-narco Campaign under the name of Operation Southern Spear. This operation has contained lethal strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats with the first strike occurring on September second, according to ABC. Since the beginning of the operation at least 26 drug boats have been sunk and at least 95 suspected drug smugglers killed. The enforcement campaign has been backed by the largest US military presence since the 1989 Invasion of Panama.
Since the beginning of operations, the task force has steadily grown to now include a carrier strike group including the Gerald r Ford Aircraft carrier, with its airwing of 4 squadrons F/A-18E/F super hornets along with a squadron of E/A-18G electronic warfare aircraft, along with accompanying air and naval assets. The US has also deployed an Amphibious ready group with the leadership being the USS Iwo Jima. The Iwo Jima is an amphibious assault ship that can carry almost 5,000 soldiers. The us has a total of 15,000 troops deployed at sea in the Caribbean as of Nov 30th according to the New York post. The capstone of this force is 10 F-35B deployed in Puerto Rico. Trinidad and Tobago’s airports have also recently been open to us military aircraft and personal for logistical and personal related purposes. This allows the us to turn Trinidad and Tobago into a logistical node and staging ground for US forces in the event of war with Venezuela.
All this build up has also been accompany by Multiple threats by president trump against the Leader of Venezuela President Nicolàs Maduro. Trump has repeatedly accused Maduro of engaging in drug smuggling and human trafficking. Maduro has also been alleged as being the Leader of the foreign terrorist organization Cartel de los Soles. The Trump Administration has also placed a 50-million-dollar bounty on his head per the us state department. All these threats came to a head on December 10th, 2025, when the Oil tanker Skipper was seized by US forces for violating sanctions the boat, is owned by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and has been used to fund the Quds force as well as Hezbollah whom the IRGC works closely with. Venezuela has denounced this as an “Act of Piracy”. Since the seizure of the Skipper tensions have only continued to escalate with the us setting up a total blockade of all sanctioned vessels entering and exiting Venezuela. This is a big deal due to Venezuela’s reliance on oil exports for revenue over 90% of Venezuela’s export revenue and 17% of its gdp comes from oil exports. Many of these exports being the countries the us has sanctioned. 30 Out of the 80 ships in or heading for Venezuela as of last week were sanctioned by the US and at risk of being
seized. IF this blockade is as heavily enforced as trump says the damage to Venezuelan oil exports and the Venezuela will be immense.
The Venezuelans for their part have not sat idlily by as the noose is being tightened around them. The Venezuelans have conducted a military mobilization increasing the size of the armed forces to 200,000 personals by mobilizing over 80,000 Milita and reservists for 2 days of refresher training. Venezuela’s main strength in the event of war of an invasion from the us is it large ground and militia forces who could fight a guerrilla war or a war of attrition against the united states in the jungles, mountains and dense urban environments that us forces would have to move through in the event of an invasion. The army possess about 91 T-72b1and 81 amx-30 MBT with upgraded ballistic computers and thermal imagers along 123 BMP-3 along with some BTR-82, and a hodgepodge of other western AFVs. Venezuela most modern arm is arguably its artillery branch featuring several modern BM-30 Smerch MLRS systems and 152mm Mista-s self-propelled howitzers. Army aviation also has some mi-35 hinds attack helicopters.
The other more technical arms of the military come up lacking with its Airforce Flying the twin seat multirole Sukhoi SU-30mk2 flanker of which it has 24 aircraft. The SU-30mk2 introduced in 2002 and acquired by Venezuela in 2006 armed with the R-77 Air to air missile. The SU-30mk2 can certainly be a threat in the air-to-air domain against US 4th and 4.5 gen fighter aircraft. Foe air to ground missions the Flanker has access to various air to ground munitions like the Kh-31. The SU-30mk2 features the N001VE PESA radar with good multi-tasking ability for both the pilot and the WSO who have access to multiple multi-function displays offering good human machine interfaces as well as good situational awareness. The Main problems for the SU-30mk2 is its lack of support it will receive when compared to US forces whom will have AWACS support as well as the support of 5th gen aircraft and comprehensive EW platforms. The SU-30mk2 will likely be especially susceptible to due to its age and the lack of support from Russia. US planes also benefit from stronger AESA along with longer range AIM-120D AMRAAM that is less susceptible to ECM (electronic counter measures) than the R-77. The F/A-18E/F also has stronger ECM and Data Fusion, something the SU-30mk2 lacks. The flankers are also hindered by poor Maintenance and pilot training, leading many to believe the majority of the SU-30mk2 fleet is inoperable. The AMBV (Venezuela’s air force) also has a handful of f-16a/b these planes are of 80s vintage and only 1 or 2 are believed to be operable they are outclassed in literally every way by the SU-30mk2 and their effect on the strategic balance is minimal.
Venezuela’s air defense arm is not lacking in technical sophistication but is certainly lacking in terms of mass and system type. Venezuela has 12 batteries of the S-300vm one battery consists of 4 launchers and a fire control radar. The S-300vm is a
modern specialized long-range variant of the S-300 family of SAM system designed around the ability to engage and destroy Ballistic missiles. The S-300vm is an extremely versatile SAM designed as an army and front level Air defense for Soviet and Warsaw pact forces during the 1980s. The launchers of the S-300vm also feature their own radar allowing semi-independent target engagement. The S-300vm has a range of around 200-250km. Due to being designed as a mobile army, the SAM mobility of the S-300vm is extremely mobile, allowing the set-up ambushes for enemy aircraft as well as travel quickly to where they are needed most. Their mobility also gives them enhanced survivability allowing them to hide from and dodge enemy SEAD (suppression of enemy air defense) and DEAD (destruction of enemy air defense). Venezuela also has 9 BUK-m2e medium range SAM systems similarly to the S-300vm. The BUK was developed in the 1980s as a divisional level air defense unit for the Soviet ground forces giving it extremely high mobility and versatility giving it the same benefits as the S-300vm. Buk-m2 has a maximum range of around 50km. Finaly the Venezuelans have 44 S-125m2 launchers. The System has been fitted to trucks allowing them to be highly mobile just like previous system. The major drawback of the S-125m2 is the lack of a radar on the launch vehicle leading to it requiring the launch vehicle to be close to and in contact with the battery radar. Venezuela also has upwards of 5,000 IglaS IR missiles these are short range air defense launchers man portable they can be effective against low to medium range aircraft flying close to Venezuelan troops. The iglaS is also very effective against helicopters and low flying UAVs. Although formidable from a technical point of view all these SAM systems all suffer from the same issue of poor Maintenance and crew training which will certainly degrade the air defense unit’s performance in the event of war.
As the Interactions between the United States and Venezuela grow increasingly hostile the question of whether the United States will use military force against Venezuela proper is still unanswered. President trump has said multiple time that he hasn’t decided on what to do but hasn’t ruled out military force. All we can do now is wait and hope for peace
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-us-strikes-alleged-drug-boats/story?id=126940218
https://www.cfr.org/article/mapping-us-military-buildup-near-venezuela
https://nypost.com/2025/11/30/us-news/11-us-warships-and-15000-troops-now-in-caribbean-amid-escalating-venezuela-tensions/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gej5ezyypo
https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/13/americas/venezuela-military-us-tensions-explainer-intl-latam
